The first batch of 2026 opened with two rounds. Round 389, a Provincial Nominee Program round on January 5, 2026, issued 574 invitations at a cut-off of 711. Round 390, on January 7, was a Canadian Experience Class round issuing 8,000 invitations, the single largest CEC round in this entire tracked run, at a cut-off of 511.
The CEC cut-off of 511 extends a decline that has now run for four consecutive rounds, from 531 in late November, through 520 and 515 in December, to 511 here. The size of the round, 8,000 invitations, is the more striking figure: it is larger than any CEC round in the twelve months either side of it.
A PNP cut-off of 711 is unremarkable next to the wider range this stream has shown, but it is worth noting alongside the CEC figures because it confirms that the general pool and the PNP-nominated pool continued to move independently of one another into the new year.
| Round | Date | Category | Invitations | CRS cut-off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #389 | January 5, 2026 | Provincial Nominee Program | 574 | 711 |
| #390 | January 7, 2026 | Canadian Experience Class | 8,000 | 511 |
Each bar is the lowest CRS score invited in that round. Invitation counts differ by orders of magnitude between rounds, so they are given as text rather than as a second axis.
PNP
#389 · 574 ITAs
711
CEC
#390 · 8,000 ITAs
511
600 points is what a provincial nomination adds on its own.
- Provincial nomination
- General programme round
The largest Canadian Experience Class round in this run
At 8,000 invitations, round 390 stands out clearly against the CEC rounds before and after it, most of which issued between 1,000 and 6,000 invitations across this cycle. A round this large, combined with a cut-off of 511, indicates IRCC drew unusually deep into the pool of candidates with Canadian work experience during the first week of January.
For candidates near this score, a large-volume round is the clearest opportunity within a general stream, since it reaches further down the ranked pool than a typical round. It does not change the underlying scoring, only how many candidates at a given score band are reached in that particular round.
A fourth consecutive drop in the CEC cut-off
The run from 531 to 520 to 515 to 511 across four rounds spanning late November to early January is a sustained decline of twenty points. Read forward from this point, the cut-off would ease further still before bottoming out at 507 in mid-March, meaning this round sat only four points above the eventual low for the cycle.
A candidate assessing whether to wait for a further drop should weigh that against the uncertainty of any single round's category or volume. The CRS calculator shows where a score stands today; the live draw table shows the trend, but IRCC does not publish the schedule of upcoming rounds or their likely cut-offs.
PNP holds its own trajectory
Round 389's cut-off of 711 and 574 invitations both sit comfortably within the ranges this stream has shown across recent batches, neither approaching the 1,123-invitation peak of early December nor the 699 low of late November. The PNP stream's independence from CEC and category trends is a recurring theme across this cycle: a nominated candidate's prospects depend on provincial programme activity, not on how the general or category pools are moving.
It is also a useful reminder that the PNP cut-off, even when it sits well above 700, is not evidence that provincial nomination standards are tightening. Since the fixed 600-point nomination bonus dominates every PNP score, round-to-round movement in the remaining 100 to 150 points reflects the specific candidates who applied and were nominated in the weeks before the round, not a shift in policy.
What a slow start to the year looks like in the data
Only two rounds ran in this first batch of 2026, against three in most of the batches through the autumn. That is a smaller number of distinct selections, even though the CEC round alone issued more invitations, 8,000, than most entire batches beforehand. A quieter start to a new year should not be read as a change in overall pace; it simply reflects which streams IRCC drew from in this particular window.
Candidates who track their eligibility closely across several streams, general, category and provincial, are better placed to respond to whichever round actually runs than those who wait for a specific category to reappear. Checking the live draw table after each new round remains the most reliable way to see which stream was used and at what cut-off.
What to take from this round
- The 8,000-invitation Canadian Experience Class round was the largest recorded in this cycle, a scale worth noting even though it did not change the scoring mechanics.
- The CEC cut-off has now fallen for four consecutive rounds and sat within a handful of points of the cycle's eventual low.
- PNP cut-offs and invitation counts continued to move independently of the general and category streams into the new year.
- Candidates without a nomination or category match should check the CRS calculator now, given how close the general cut-off had come to its lowest point of the cycle.
Round numbers, dates, invitation counts and CRS cut-offs are IRCC's own, from their published rounds of invitations. The analysis is general information, not immigration advice, and reading it creates no consultant-client relationship.