This batch closed with two rounds. Round 391, a Provincial Nominee Program round on January 20, 2026, issued 681 invitations at a cut-off of 746. Round 392, on January 21, was a Canadian Experience Class round issuing 6,000 invitations at a cut-off of 509, two points below the 511 seen in the previous batch.
The CEC cut-off of 509 extends the decline that has now run across five consecutive rounds since late November 2025, though the pace of the drop has slowed considerably, from a sixteen-point fall over three rounds in December to a two-point move here.
The PNP cut-off of 746 is a rebound from 711 in the prior batch, a reminder that this stream's cut-off moves with the mix of nominated candidates in the pool at a given time rather than along any steady trend.
| Round | Date | Category | Invitations | CRS cut-off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #391 | January 20, 2026 | Provincial Nominee Program | 681 | 746 |
| #392 | January 21, 2026 | Canadian Experience Class | 6,000 | 509 |
Each bar is the lowest CRS score invited in that round. Invitation counts differ by orders of magnitude between rounds, so they are given as text rather than as a second axis.
PNP
#391 · 681 ITAs
746
CEC
#392 · 6,000 ITAs
509
600 points is what a provincial nomination adds on its own.
- Provincial nomination
- General programme round
CEC approaches the bottom of its range
At 509, this round's cut-off is only two points above the 507 low this cycle would eventually reach in mid-March 2026, and four points below the 8,000-invitation round three weeks earlier. Combined with a 6,000-invitation volume, itself matching several of the largest CEC rounds tracked in this run, the round reflects a pool that had grown deep at the lower end of the CEC score range by late January.
A candidate with a CRS near 509 was, at this point in the cycle, close to the most favourable position the Canadian Experience Class stream would offer for several months. The practical lesson is less about this specific number and more about the value of checking the CRS calculator regularly during a period of declining cut-offs, since the gap between an in-range and out-of-range score can close within a few rounds.
Why the PNP cut-off moved back above 740
The jump from 711 to 746 between consecutive PNP rounds is a reminder that this stream does not follow the same steady trajectory as the Canadian Experience Class. Because every invited candidate already holds a 600-point nomination, the remaining variation, here roughly the difference between 111 and 146 points of human capital and skill transferability factors, depends entirely on which nominated candidates happened to be in the pool that week.
This kind of round-to-round volatility is normal for the PNP stream across the whole period covered in this series, and it should not be read as a tightening of provincial nomination criteria. Provinces set their own nomination requirements separately from IRCC's federal rounds.
Two months of Express Entry activity in context
Looking back across the batches from mid-October 2025 to this one, the clearest pattern is the steady CEC decline, from 533 down to 509, punctuated by one unusually large round at 8,000 invitations. The PNP and category streams, by contrast, moved with more volatility and less directional trend.
None of this points to a fixed rule for future rounds. IRCC's own published data, available through the live draw table, remains the only reliable source for what happens next; the patterns described here describe what has already occurred, not what will.
What no category round in this batch means
Unlike most of the batches since mid-October, this one ran no French-language, healthcare or other category-specific round, only a PNP round and a Canadian Experience Class round. That is not evidence that category rounds had stopped; several would resume within weeks. It simply reflects which selections IRCC chose to run in this particular window.
For a candidate who relies on a category match, such as strong French test results, a two-week gap between category rounds is well within the normal rhythm of this system. The practical response is the same as in any other batch: check current eligibility with the CRS calculator and watch the live draw table for the next round in the relevant category, rather than reading anything into a single quiet batch.
What to take from this round
- The Canadian Experience Class cut-off of 509 sat only two points above the eventual cycle low reached in March 2026.
- A rebound in the PNP cut-off, from 711 to 746, reflects normal volatility in that stream rather than a change in provincial nomination standards.
- Candidates near the CEC threshold should monitor the CRS calculator closely during any stretch of declining cut-offs, since favourable windows can be brief.
- The pattern across late 2025 and January 2026 was a gradual CEC decline alongside a more volatile PNP stream; check the live draw table rather than assuming either pattern will continue.
Round numbers, dates, invitation counts and CRS cut-offs are IRCC's own, from their published rounds of invitations. The analysis is general information, not immigration advice, and reading it creates no consultant-client relationship.